A nationwide telephone opinion poll conducted across Nigeria’s 36 states using voter data obtained from the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC’s) voter register, presents a clear picture of the voting preferences captured by the exercise: Atiku Abubakar leads with 43.67 per cent, Peter Obi follows with 30.23 per cent, while Bola Ahmed Tinubu records 27.10 per cent.
The state-level distribution reinforces the national figures. The poll projects Atiku to lead in 17 states, Obi in 10 states, and Tinubu in 9 states.
NATIONAL POLL RESULT
ATIKU ABUBAKAR — 43.67% | 17 STATES
PETER OBI — 30.23% | 10 STATES
BOLA AHMED TINUBU — 27.10% | 9 STATES
Atiku records a 13.44-percentage-point lead over Obi and a 16.57-point lead over Tinubu. Obi records a 3.13-point difference over Tinubu.
GEOGRAPHICAL DISTRIBUTION
The poll reports a broad geographical spread of support for Atiku. He is projected to lead in 15 Northern states, together with Rivers and Osun, giving him the largest state footprint among the three leading contenders in this exercise.
Peter Obi is projected to lead in 10 states, comprising all five South-Eastern states — Abia, Anambra, Ebonyi, Enugu and Imo — together with Edo, Bayelsa, Delta, Plateau and Nasarawa.
Bola Ahmed Tinubu is projected to lead in 9 states: Lagos, Ogun, Oyo, Ondo, Ekiti, Kogi, Kwara, Akwa Ibom and Cross River.
The distribution represents the voting preferences captured by the survey and should not be interpreted as a prediction or certified result of the 2027 presidential election.
WHAT RESPONDENTS IDENTIFIED
Beyond voting intention, the poll records several factors cited by respondents in explaining their preferences.
Many respondents expressed the view that Atiku offers policy prescriptions they consider appropriate for addressing Nigeria’s economic and cost-of-living challenges, particularly concerns associated with the removal of petroleum subsidies and foreign-exchange reforms under the Tinubu administration.
Respondents also cited national security, inclusion and national unity among issues influencing their preferences for Atiku.
The poll highlighted some of the more educated respondents’ perception that Atiku’s team and the ADC Coalition appears more convincing better prepared for the responsibilities of governance, with particular interest in tackling corruption, strengthening regional cooperation and pursuing what respondents regard as a more effective foreign-policy strategy that is completely lacking under the Tinubu administration.
These are respondents’ perceptions recorded by the exercise, rather than independent assessments of the candidates or their prospective policies.
ABOUT THE POLL ORGANISER
The telephone opinion poll was conducted by the Citizens Democratic Coalition Situation Room, a non-partisan group of journalists, democracy advocates and professionals interested in the advancement of democracy, accountable governance and credible elections in Nigeria.
The group’s stated interest is to contribute to informed civic discourse, encourage democratic participation and provide citizens with information on issues affecting Nigeria’s democratic development.
THE POLL’S CENTRAL FINDING
The central finding of the exercise is straightforward: Atiku Abubakar emerges as the leading candidate among respondents captured by the poll, Peter Obi occupies second position, while Bola Ahmed Tinubu comes third.
At 43.67 per cent, Atiku records the highest national preference in the exercise and is projected to lead in 17 states. Obi records 30.23 per cent and 10 states, while Tinubu records 27.10 per cent and 9 states.
The combination of Atiku’s reported national percentage and projected state-level leads gives him the largest showing among the three candidates in this particular opinion-poll exercise.
IMPORTANT NOTE
The results constitute the reported findings of a telephone opinion poll conducted across Nigeria’s 36 states. They provide a snapshot of the voting preferences captured from respondents at the time of the exercise.
They should therefore be understood as poll findings, not electoral results or a definitive forecast of the outcome of the 2027 presidential election. Actual election results will depend on voters’ decisions, turnout, the conduct of the election and the votes validly cast and counted in accordance with Nigeria’s electoral laws.
POLL RESULT
ATIKU ABUBAKAR — 43.67% | 17 STATES
PETER OBI — 30.23% | 10 STATES
BOLA AHMED TINUBU — 27.10% | 9 STATES
Atiku leads the poll. Obi is second. Tinubu is third.
