Prof. Chris Isike, a Nigerian international affairs expert, says the ongoigng U.S.–Iran conflict in the Gulf region may have significant economic implications for African countries.
Isike, a Professor of African Politics and International Relations at the University of Pretoria, said this in a telephone interview from Pretoria, South Africa.
He said Africa remained vulnerable to geopolitical developments outside the continent, particularly in relation to energy markets.
“The conflict will have an impact on Africa. We remain vulnerable to developments outside our continent.
“For oil-importing countries in Africa, they will likely face higher fuel prices, inflationary pressures and currency depreciation as a result of the tensions in the Gulf,” he said.
According to Isike, oil-exporting countries in Africa may experience short-term gains from rising global oil prices.
“However, such windfalls are often volatile. Shipping costs and insurance premiums may increase due to the conflict.
“There could also be global demand shocks that may eventually offset price gains if the conflict escalates into an economic recession,” he said.
He noted that for Nigeria, higher oil prices could boost fiscal revenues.
Isike, however, said structural challenges affecting oil production, including oil theft, could limit the country’s ability to fully benefit from any potential price increases.
“In the short term, oil exporters may benefit while oil importers suffer.
“In the medium term, inflation, debt stress and food insecurity could rise across the continent.
“In the long term, the conflict underscores Africa’s vulnerability to external geopolitical shocks,” he said.
