Nigeria’s elections are not won by hope or noise. They are won by hard choices—about geography, identity, numbers, and timing. That reality explains why the recent warning by the Minister of Culture, Tourism and Creative Economy, Hannatu Musawa, deserves serious attention.
Musawa spoke on Mic On Show with Seun Okinbaloye amid rising speculation that the All Progressives Congress (APC) may adjust the Muslim–Muslim ticket that delivered victory in 2023. Her message was clear and unambiguous: drop Vice President Kashim Shettima, or abandon a northern Muslim running mate, and APC could trigger a political backlash in 2027.
This is not fear-mongering. It is political arithmetic.
The North Votes With Purpose, Not Emotion
In Nigerian politics, especially in the core North, sentiment never stands alone. Structure drives outcomes. Musawa’s point reflects what seasoned campaigners already know: the North does not vote casually.
States such as Katsina, Kano, Kaduna, Jigawa, Kebbi, Sokoto, and Zamfara function as more than voting blocs. They operate like political institutions. Elections there are deeply cultural. People prepare for them. They defend their choices. They show up.
“If there is no Hausa, Fulani or Kanuri Muslim on that ticket,” Musawa warned, “it creates a hurdle.”
That hurdle is not symbolic. It is numerical.
The North remains Nigeria’s largest pool of voters. Its electorate responds strongly to identity, history, and representation. Any party that ignores this reality misunderstands Nigeria’s electoral psychology.
Related internal read:
👉 How Regional Voting Patterns Shaped the 2023 Presidential Election
History Shows Parties Rarely Survive Electoral Experiments
Over the years, Nigerian parties have repeated the same mistake. They assume they can redesign winning formulas without consequences. History rarely rewards that gamble.
Musawa dismissed calls to reshuffle the ticket as detached from northern realities. According to her, many of those pushing the idea do not fully grasp how politics works beyond the Niger.
Simply put, you do not weaken a winning structure and expect a stronger result.
External reference:
🔗 INEC voting data from previous presidential elections consistently shows the North’s decisive role in determining outcomes. (Source: Independent National Electoral Commission)https://www.inecnigeria.org/election-results/
Opposition Alliances: Loud on Paper, Weak in Practice
Musawa’s comments also addressed the growing talk of opposition coalitions ahead of 2027. Here, too, her assessment was familiar.
Nigerian opposition alliances often look formidable at the announcement stage. Yet, they struggle to survive ambition clashes. Too many leaders chase the same seat. Too few agree on direction.
An overcrowded opposition, she noted, usually collapses under its own weight.
Related internal read:
👉 Why Opposition Mega Coalitions Often Fail in Nigeria https://africanarguments.org/2017/06/why-do-opposition-coalitions-succeed-or-fail/
Confidence, Not Complacency, Inside APC
Musawa stressed that APC is not underestimating anyone. The party, she said, understands that power in Nigeria is never permanent. However, confidence built on structure is not arrogance. It is strategy.
She also acknowledged the importance of opposition in a democracy. Nigeria needs competition. It does not need a one-party system. Still, for opposition to matter, it must be organised, disciplined, and connected to voters.
The Lesson Ahead of 2027
As 2027 draws closer, one truth stands firm: Nigeria does not forgive political miscalculations easily. Parties that ignore history, identity, and voter behaviour often pay a heavy price.
For APC, Musawa’s message is timely and direct. The Tinubu–Shettima ticket is more than a political pairing. It is an electoral equation.
Change it carelessly, and the numbers may stop adding up.
In Nigerian politics, that difference often separates victory from regret.
Written by : Nwachukwu Shalom C.
