By any serious reading of Nigeria’s political history, elections are rarely won by wishful thinking. They are won by cold calculations—of geography, identity, numbers, and timing. It is against this backdrop that the recent warning by the Minister of Culture, Tourism and Creative Economy, Hannatu Musawa, deserves careful attention, not casual dismissal.
Speaking on Mic On Show with Seun Okinbaloye, Musawa addressed the growing speculation that the All Progressives Congress (APC) may tinker with the Muslim–Muslim ticket that powered President Bola Tinubu to victory in 2023. Her message was blunt: remove Vice President Kashim Shettima—or abandon a northern Muslim running mate—and APC risks walking into a political storm in 2027.
This is not alarmism. It is realism.
In Nigerian politics, especially in the core North, sentiment is never detached from structure. Musawa’s argument rests on a truth every experienced campaigner knows: the North does not vote casually. States like Katsina, Kano, Kaduna, Jigawa, Kebbi, Sokoto and Zamfara are not just voting blocs; they are political institutions in themselves. Elections there are cultural events, taken personally and defended fiercely.
“If there is no Hausa, Fulani or Kanuri Muslim on that ticket,” Musawa said, “it creates a hurdle.”
That “hurdle” she refers to is not symbolic—it is numerical. The North remains Nigeria’s largest reservoir of votes, and its electorate is deeply shaped by identity, history, and a strong sense of political inclusion. To underestimate this is to misunderstand Nigeria.
Over the decades, many parties have made the same mistake: assuming they can redesign political formulas without consequences. They rarely survive it. Musawa dismissed such thinking as detached from northern realities, warning that those advocating a change may not fully grasp how politics truly works above the Niger.
Her intervention also lands at a time when the opposition is busy talking alliances. But here again, Musawa struck a familiar chord. Nigerian opposition coalitions often look formidable on paper and fragile in practice. Too many ambitions, too many generals, and not enough soldiers.
An overcrowded opposition, she noted, usually collapses under its own weight.
This does not mean APC is complacent. Far from it. The ruling party, by her account, is watching every movement closely, aware that power in Nigeria is never permanent. But confidence, when rooted in structure, is not arrogance—it is strategy.
Musawa was also careful to acknowledge the value of opposition in a democracy. Nigeria does not need a one-party state. It needs competition. But competition must be organised, disciplined, and connected to the people.
As 2027 approaches, one lesson stands out: Nigeria does not forgive political miscalculations easily. Any party that ignores history, identity, and voter psychology does so at its own peril.
For APC, the message from Musawa is clear and timely—the Tinubu–Shettima ticket is not just a pairing of individuals; it is a political equation. Change it carelessly, and the numbers may no longer add up.
In Nigerian politics, that is often the difference between victory and regret.
