Oil prices are rising despite concerns about Trump imposing tariffs on trading partners and talk of a peace deal between Russia and Ukraine.
Oil prices are now set to end the week with a gain, ending a three-week losing streak.
Backwardation has eased in global crude futures and oil is set to rebound from three straight weeks of losses.
This week’s largest geopolitical development – the prospect of a Russian-Ukrainian negotiated settlement – has oddly failed to push prices significantly lower, even though it had a massive and immediate impact on European natural gas prices.
As such, ICE Brent futures are set to finish the week trading slightly below $76 per barrel.
Trump Gets India to Buy More US Energy.
Meeting Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi at the White House this week, US President Donald Trump claimed to have reached an agreement to sell more oil and gas to India, with US exports of crude halving from their 2021 peak and accounting for just 220,000 b/d.
OPEC Sticks to Upbeat 2025 Growth Forecasts.
OPEC has kept its forecasts for global demand growth over the upcoming years untouched, pencilling in growth at 1.45 million b/d and 1.43 million b/d, in 2025 and 2026 respectively, even if acknowledging the potentially disruptive effect of Trump tariffs.
India Wants Compliant Russian Oil.
India’s oil secretary Pankaj Jain said the South Asian country’s refiners would only buy Russian oil if it’s supplied by non-sanctioned firms on tankers that are not on the OFAC list, with this month seeing a rebound in Russian imports to 1.8 million b/d.
IEA Warns of Chinese Fuel Demand Peak.
In its monthly oil report, the International Energy Agency warned that Chinese demand for road and air transport fuels may have passed its peak, saying total fuel consumption dropped to 8.1 million b/d by the end of 2024, some 200,000 b/d lower than in 2021.
Exxon Eyes FID on Eighth Guyana Project.
The ExxonMobil-led (NYSE:XOM) consortium that operates Guyana’s Stabroek block has requested environmental permits from Guyana for its 8th offshore project, centred around the Longtail field, that should add up to 250,000 b/d of output by 2030.
Trump-Putin Peace Talks Cool Gas Price Rally.
Europe’s TTF gas futures benchmark shed almost 15% in the two days following the Trump-Putin telephone call on a potential settlement in Ukraine, currently trading around €51 per MWh following a two-year high of €59.27 per MWh reached on Tuesday.
US Majors Start to Cut Workforce.
US oil major Chevron (NYSE:CVX) announced it would lay off 15% to 20% of its global workforce by the end of 2026, equivalent to some 8,000 people from the 40,212 people it employed at the end of 2023, seeking to cut costs for the 53 billion acquisition of Hess.
Defying Debt, Mexico Wants More Petrochemicals.
Stalling with the long-awaited ramp-up of its 340,000 b/d Dos Bocas refinery, Mexico’s state oil firm Pemex now committed $1 billion to increase its petrochemical output over the next six years, seeking to produce 690,000 mt of polyethylene by 2030.
Brazil Wants to Explore Other Side of Atlantic.
Brazil’s state oil firm Petrobras (NYSE:PBR) stated it plans to buy stakes in African oil assets, targeting Southern African plays in Angola, Namibia and South Africa, in a bid to boost reserves once its domestic production is set to decline from 2030 onwards.
Cyclones Batter Australia’s Mining Firms.
Western Australian ports remain closed after Tropical Cyclone Zelia swept through the country’s coastal regions, hampering iron ore shipments of Rio Tinto (NYSE:RIO) from the port of Dampier and forcing Shell to halt LNG loadings from Prelude LNG until February 16.
Chinese Carmakers Eye Brazilian Lithium.
China’s BYD (SHE:002594), the world’s largest EV carmaker, acquired mineral rights to two lithium-rich blocks in southern Brazil, marking its first move to lithium mining beyond Chinese territory as it seeks to mine lithium next to its Minas Gerais car factory.
Banks Revolt Against Papua LNG.
Italy’s largest bank Intesa Sanpaolo (BIT:ISP) as well as the Asian Development Bank both announced they would finance the $10 billion Papua LNG project amidst intensifying pressure from environmental groups, adding to the 13 banks that already refused to do so.
US Becomes Premium Copper Market.
The spread between US and London copper futures continues to widen after Donald Trump’s 25% steel tariff announcement, with the premium of the Comex copper contract over LME surging to a record $920 per metric tonne this week, up from $560/mt last Friday.
Saudi Arabia’s Gigaproject Expands into AI.
Saudi Arabia’s largest infrastructure project Neom signed a $5 billion deal with Riyadh-based data centre investor DataVolt to develop a 1.5 GW net-zero AI data centre in the city, expecting the first phase of the investment to be operational by 2028.
