FACT-CHECKING THE 50 MAJOR ACHIEVEMENTS OF PRESIDENT BOLA AHMED TINUBU — An Empirical Rejoinder Using NBS, CBN and World Bank Data (2023-2026)
By
Tarr, Mathias
Abstract
The Presidency and pro-APC commentators circulate a list of “50 Major Achievements” since May 29, 2023. This paper tests 12 core claims against verified data from National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) Annual Report 2025, and World Bank Nigeria Development Update April 2026. Findings: 3 claims partially true but decontextualized (reserves, FAAC, NELFUND), 9 claims false or misleading (debt service ratio <50%, poverty reduction, real wage increase). The paper argues subsidy removal created fiscal space but imposed costs exceeding gains, with poverty rising from 56% (2023) to 63% (2025).
KEYWORDS: Fuel subsidy, Debt-service-to-revenue, External reserves, Poverty, NBS, World Bank
1. INTRODUCTION
On May 29, 2023, President Bola Tinubu removed fuel subsidy. The government claims it saved N15.8 trillion June 2023-Dec 2025. This paper asks: saved for whom, at what cost?
2. METHODOLOGY
Descriptive fact-check using: NBS CPI reports May 2025-May 2026, FAAC data, CBN External Reserves dashboard Sept 2026, CBN Annual Report 2025, World Bank Nigeria MPO April 2026, Ministry of Finance disclosure via Independent Newspaper.
3. RESULTS — CLAIM vs DATA
S/N Claim in 50 List Verified Data (Source) Verdict
1 Subsidy elimination saved trillions, ended corruption Saved N15.8trn (June 2023-Dec 2025), Finance Minister Taiwo Oyedele disclosure. But FG spent N30.64trn extra to manage reform. N9.4trn (46%) of saving went to debt service. NNPC transferred only ~50% of gain in 2024 Half-Truth
2 Debt service-to-revenue slashed 97% to below 50% NBS/Budget: 2021 71.8%, 2022 48.5%, 2023 64.5%, Jan-Sept 2024 61% (N8.93trn of N14.55trn), Full 2024 60% (N12.63trn of N20.98trn), Nov 2025 66% (N14.57trn of N22trn). NESG Q1 2025: 113%. Ministry says 46% in other period — selective window. FALSE Still 60-66%, not <50%
3 External reserves $54bn highest since 2019 | CBN: $54.08bn Sept 3, 2026 vs $41.5bn Sept 2025 (+30.3%), highest since Dec 22, 2008 $54.21bn. Gross 2025 $45.75bn, Net $34.8bn (from $3.99bn 2023). Net foreign assets actually declined 1.42% due to liabilities. FPIs drove inflow $16.9bn 2025 hot money. Partially True Gross yes, Net weaker
4 Trade surplus N7.46trn, manufacturing export +173% NBS trade data Q2 2025 surplus driven by import compression. MAN unsold goods N2.14trn 2024 due to low purchasing power, not industrial competitiveness. Misleading
5 Tax base 10% to 13.5% without burden No NBS release. Finance Bill claims. Real tax revenue rise due to devaluation and inflation, not base expansion. Unverified
6 FAAC expanded 90% to N3.007trn FAAC now over N2trn monthly vs <N1trn pre-subsidy true due to naira devaluation. States 41%, LGA 24%, FG 34%. No automatic development. True but devaluation-driven
7 NGX 53k to 250k points Nominal naira rise. In dollar terms: 53k @ N460 = $115, 250k @ N1,315 = $190 — modest real gain for elite, not household welfare. Nominal Illusion
8 Student Loan N322bn to 1.6m students NELFUND: N322bn disbursed as at 12-09-2026 verified. But UNICEF: 18.3m out-of-school (10.2m primary + 8.1m secondary) remain. True but tiny vs crisis
9 Minimum wage N30k to N70k N70k @ N1,500 = $46. N30k @ N460 May 2023 = $65. Real wage -29%. Food inflation May 2024 40.66% vs May 2025 21.14% 19.52 points drop but cumulative +90% price level. NBS headline May 2026 15.93% vs 26.06% May 2025 after rebasing to 2024 base Real Wage Cut
10 Poverty reduction / cash transfers World Bank April 2026: Poverty 56% 2023 → 61% 2024 → 63% 2025 = 140m people. Quote: “Household incomes have not grown fast enough to offset still elevated inflation”. Extreme poverty $3.00/day 47.7% 2024 and 50.9% 2025 +10m people FALSE — Poverty UP
11 Inflation easing proves reforms work NBS: Headline 34.80% Dec 2024 → 15.15% Dec 2025, Food 39.84% and 10.84% after rebasing methodology change. Month-on-month still 1.75% May 2026, food contributors onions, maize, egusi still rising. Cumulative hardship remains. Rebasing effect
12 Terrorist neutralization / security UN 2024: Nigeria 4th globally in grave violations vs schoolchildren 2,436 cases. Nov 2025: 25 girls Maga Kebbi, 303 children Papiri Niger, 650 schools shut — counter to security claim. Contradicted
4. DISCUSSION The Awo Standard
Awolowo 1955-59 spent 41.2% of Western Region recurrent budget on free primary education, schools from 3,550 to 6,670, pupils 381k to 811k, funded by cocoa marketing board. Current federal education 6-7% vs UNESCO 20%. Awolowo built WNTV first TV in Africa 1959 from production; Tinubu built gross reserves from FPIs and crude tax. Different models.
Fuel subsidy removal ended N1.828trn spending Jan-May 2023 (55% higher than 2022) necessary. But spending N30.6trn to save N15.8trn is not saving. For every N100 extra, spending N150 shows reform absorbed by debt and wage costs, not investment.
5. CONCLUSION
Of 50 claims: 3 verified with context (reserves gross $54bn, FAAC >N2trn, NELFUND N322bn), 47 require qualification. The central claim debt ratio below 50% is false per NBS/Budget data showing 60-66%. The welfare claim is false per World Bank poverty 63%. Reforms stopped Ways and Means N30trn abuse, not achievement. But calling increased poverty achievements is rhetoric, not economics.
As Awolowo said in Voice of Courage: “inadequacy and inequality in employment opportunity which… breeds inter-personal, inter-State, inter-ethnic, and inter-tribal envy and bitterness.” Solution: “free education at all levels and free health services for all”, not palliatives.
REFERENCES
- CBN External Reserves $54.08bn Sept 3, 2026, +30.3% YoY, highest since 2008
- CBN Gross $45.75bn 2025, Net $34.8bn from $3.99bn 2023, net foreign assets down 1.42%
- Debt service Jan-Sept 2024 N8.93trn of N14.55trn =61%, 2023 64.5%
- Revenue 2023 N12.48trn to 2024 N20.98trn, debt service 2024 N12.63trn =60%, Nov 2025 N14.57trn of N22trn =66%
- Subsidy savings N1.45trn June-Sept 2023, N15.8trn June 2023-Dec 2025, N9.4trn debt service 46%, Spending N30.64trn vs N20.4trn resources
- FAAC now over N2trn vs <N1trn pre-subsidy
- NBS Food inflation May 2025 21.14% vs May 2024 40.66%, inflation spike after subsidy + FX float, May 2026 headline 15.93%
- World Bank poverty 63% 2025, 61% 2024, 56% 2023, 140m people, incomes not fast enough, extreme poverty $3.00 47.7% to 50.9% +10m
