President Bola Ahmed Tinubu currently leads Atiku Abubakar and Peter Obi in an early 2027 presidential election forecast by the Political Intelligence Group (PIG) of Politico.ng, Lagos.
Tinubu projected to win 20 states
The group projects that Tinubu and the All Progressives Congress (APC) would win 20 states if the election took place under the current political conditions.
Meanwhile, Atiku is projected to win nine states, while Obi could secure eight states and the Federal Capital Territory (FCT).
However, PIG warned that the figures reflect only the current political landscape. It said the projection does not represent the eventual result, noting that Nigeria’s political situation could change before 2027.
“If the election were held today, based on the political realities and alignments currently on the ground, the APC and President Tinubu would have the advantage,” PIG stated.
“However, this is a projection of the current situation, not a declaration of the eventual result. A lot can happen between now and 2027.”
Economy could shape Tinubu’s chances
Lagos remains firmly in Tinubu’s column under the forecast. However, the president’s 2027 chances could depend largely on how voters judge his administration.
Economic hardship, inflation, unemployment, insecurity, infrastructure and the cost of living could dominate the campaign. Consequently, PIG identified the economy as a major factor in the contest.
“The economy remains the biggest variable in this election. If economic conditions improve significantly, it could work in favour of the incumbent. If hardship persists, the opposition will have a powerful campaign issue,” it observed.
Atiku holds northern advantage
For Atiku, PIG projects victories in nine states, with much of his support coming from the northern region.
The former vice president could retain strong backing across parts of the North-West and North-East. Kaduna is among the states projected to fall into his column.
Furthermore, Atiku’s long political career, wide political network and experience in presidential contests remain major advantages.
However, PIG said he must turn his northern support into a wider national coalition.
“Atiku remains a formidable northern political force, but the 2027 contest will require more than regional strength. His ability to make significant inroads into the South will be critical to his prospects,” the group said.
Cost of living could aid opposition
Meanwhile, petrol and transportation prices could become key issues in Atiku’s campaign.
The former vice president has criticised parts of the Federal Government’s economic policies. He has also proposed measures aimed at reducing the burden of fuel prices on Nigerians.
PIG said high transport costs and household expenses could give the opposition a strong campaign message. However, any promise of cheaper petrol could raise questions about how the government would finance and sustain such a policy.
Obi projected to win eight states, FCT
Obi is projected to win eight states, while the FCT is also expected to fall into his column. Edo is among the states projected to go to the Labour Party candidate.
The forecast reflects the political base Obi built during the 2023 presidential election. He became a major political force, especially among younger voters and in several southern states.
His campaign message has focused on better economic management, accountability, careful public spending and more efficient governance.
However, PIG said Obi must expand his support beyond his established strongholds.
“Obi’s support remains significant, particularly among voters demanding political change and a different style of governance. The question is whether that support can be expanded geographically and translated into sufficient state-by-state victories,” it stated.
Consequently, Obi could benefit if economic hardship continues. However, his prospects may depend on political alliances, party structures and his ability to build support outside his traditional areas.
Alliances could change 2027 race
PIG identified political realignment as one of the biggest uncertainties ahead of the election.
Opposition parties have continued talks on possible alliances and coalitions against the APC. A single opposition candidate, defections, running mates, campaign structures and new political movements could change the current calculations.
“Alliances, defections, candidates, running mates and the performance of the economy can all alter today’s projection,” PIG noted.
Religion, ethnicity and regional identity could also influence the choice of presidential and vice-presidential candidates. However, issues such as security, jobs, inflation, food prices, petrol prices and living standards could compete strongly with those traditional factors.
PIG calls forecast a snapshot
The projection gives Tinubu 20 states, Atiku nine and Obi eight, bringing the total to 37 states. The FCT, which is not a state, is projected to Obi.
PIG stressed that the figures do not represent an election result. Instead, it described them as a picture of the current balance of political forces.
“Our projection should be understood as a political snapshot. It reflects the balance of forces as they currently exist. It does not mean the election has already been won or lost,” the group said.
Furthermore, the political map could change as parties strengthen their structures and potential candidates hold consultations. Opposition groups must also decide whether to contest separately or form alliances.
For Tinubu, the challenge is to turn incumbency, party structure and regional strength into lasting national support. Atiku must protect his northern base while expanding southward, while Obi must turn his 2023 momentum into a broader national coalition.
For now, however, PIG places Tinubu ahead with 20 states, followed by Atiku with nine and Obi with eight, while the FCT goes to Obi. With the 2027 presidential election still ahead, the political map remains open to major changes.
