Sub-Saharan Africa’s goods exports to the United States stood at $33.7 billion in 2025, about one-ninth of China’s $308 billion to $309 billion in exports to the American market, highlighting the continent’s limited role in global manufacturing and value addition.
The disparity persisted despite a nearly 30 per cent decline in U.S. imports from China amid a tariff war between Washington and Beijing, according to an analysis by Brian Muloni, a Senior Finance Business Partner based in Nairobi.
Muloni said the figures exposed a global trade structure in which Africa largely supplies raw materials and agricultural commodities, while China exports finished and manufactured goods on a much larger scale.
According to the analysis, U.S. imports from sub-Saharan Africa increased by 12.2 per cent in 2025 from the previous year, supporting agricultural sectors ranging from cocoa production in Côte d’Ivoire to coffee cultivation in Ethiopia.
However, the continent’s total exports to the United States remained significantly below China’s, with the latter’s exports amounting to approximately nine times the value of sub-Saharan Africa’s annual shipments to the American market.
“This is not a story about Africa’s failure to compete. It is a story about the architecture of global trade,” Muloni said, arguing that Africa had been positioned primarily as a supplier of raw materials while other economies captured greater value through manufacturing and processing.
Africa’s Exports Dominated By Commodities
The analysis identified agricultural commodities, including cocoa, coffee, cashew nuts, spices and tropical fruits, as major components of U.S. imports from sub-Saharan Africa.
The region accounts for approximately 80 per cent of U.S. agricultural imports from the continent, valued at about $4.66 billion.
Muloni noted that these products were commodities the United States could not produce competitively or at all because of its temperate climate.
However, their prices were largely determined by global commodity markets, while processing and value addition occurred predominantly outside Africa, leaving producers with only a fraction of the final retail value.
A country-by-country breakdown showed that South Africa accounted for nearly half of the continent’s exports to the United States, valued at $16.5 billion.
Its exports consisted mainly of precious metals, vehicles and machinery.
Nigeria followed with $5 billion, with crude oil accounting for the overwhelming majority of its exports to the American market.
Ghana exported goods worth $1.2 billion, including cocoa preparations valued at more than $739 million.
Kenya’s exports stood at $862 million, driven largely by apparel and coffee, while Zambia recorded $321 million, mainly from copper.
Zimbabwe exported goods worth $79.8 million, primarily tobacco and sugar.
The analysis said the value chains for many of these products extended beyond Africa, with much of the processing and higher-value commercial activity taking place elsewhere.
It cited cocoa from Ghana being processed into chocolate in Belgium, rough diamonds from Botswana being polished and sold in Antwerp, and crude oil from Nigeria’s Niger Delta being exported before refined petroleum products returned to African markets.
China Dominates Manufactured Goods Exports
In contrast, U.S. imports from China in 2025 were dominated by electronics, machinery, furniture, apparel and other consumer goods, despite the nearly 30 per cent contraction caused by the tariff dispute.
Muloni said China’s manufacturing strength reflected four decades of global supply-chain integration, during which American businesses increasingly relied on overseas production for goods that could also be manufactured in the United States.
The scale of Chinese exports was such that a single category, electronics, was worth more than sub-Saharan Africa’s entire annual export relationship with the United States, according to the analysis.
The American consumer market, he argued, had become structurally dependent on Chinese manufacturing because of the availability and affordability of its products.
Its relationship with African suppliers was different because the continent provided commodities that the United States could not readily produce at home.
“America needs Chinese goods because they are cheap and abundant. It needs African goods because they are geographically and climatically unique,” Muloni said.
He described the two relationships as different forms of trade dependence, with China benefiting from manufacturing scale and Africa relying largely on the scarcity and natural availability of its products.
AGOA Market Remains Important But Insufficient
The analysis acknowledged the importance of the American market to African exporters, particularly businesses supplying goods eligible under the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA).
The market provides a source of foreign exchange and supports agricultural exporters across the continent.
However, Muloni argued that the $33.7 billion in annual exports to the United States remained small relative to Africa’s economic needs and the continent’s potential to expand into higher-value production.
He noted that the amount was less than the value of Chinese goods exported to the United States in a single quarter.
According to him, the disparity was not simply a consequence of tariffs or trade agreements but reflected the way global manufacturing had been reorganised around Chinese production, limiting opportunities for African economies to advance along the value chain.
He said Africa’s continued reliance on exporting raw materials rather than manufactured goods meant that the American market, although important, could not by itself deliver the continent’s desired economic transformation.
The analysis concluded that the global trade system continued to channel raw materials from Africa to manufacturing centres elsewhere, before finished products moved to consumer markets, leaving African producers with a smaller share of the value generated at each stage.
Muloni argued that Africa’s ability to capture more value from its resources would be critical to changing its position in global trade, rather than relying predominantly on revenue from commodities.
