By Ambassador Babatunde Ajisomo
The Chairman of the occasion, the Director-General, NIIA, Prof. Eghosa Osaghe, Distinguished Professors and Researchers of NIIA, Mr Moritz Sprenker, Resident Representative of Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung (KAS), esteemed Participants, Ladies and Gentlemen.
It gives me great pleasure and a singular honour to have been invited to join a team of seasoned and eminent scholars and policymakers to deliver a paper at this 2-day Roundtable Retreat of NIIA’s Strategic Plan (2026–2036), on a timely and apt topic: “Engaging the Complexities of Changing Global Dynamics.”
Please allow me to commend the NIIA DG, his team, and Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung (KAS) for convening this roundtable and thinking aloud on developing an institutional blueprint for the NIIA for ten years, towards strategically transitioning the NIIA from a reactive think tank to a proactive and digitally advanced engine of strategic autonomy. This major task is not unexpected, given that over the years, the formulation of foreign policy and the conduct of international relations have generally been influenced by think tanks.
This trend has become increasingly recognized and acknowledged in global discussions, as a critical hub for impactful research, policy evaluation, and strategic guidance in navigating the complexities of international relations. In a world of accelerating change, the credibility of a nation’s foreign policy increasingly rests on the quality of the ideas, evidence, and foresight provided by its think tanks.
The Nigerian Institute of International Affairs (NIIA), established in 1961, was envisioned as a cornerstone for crafting a robust foreign policy to assert Nigeria’s leadership in Africa and beyond. Historically, the NIIA has played a pivotal role in the formulation of Nigeria’s foreign policy, particularly in promoting Afrocentrism, non-alignment, and good neighbourliness. It creates the fora for public discourse on national, regional, and global issues. However, the institute’s influence and contributions have been constrained by challenges such as limited autonomy, inadequate funding, and insufficient capacity to address contemporary complex global issues.
The task before us, therefore, is to reposition the Institute as a participant-observer of global affairs with a lead role in shaping Nigeria’s proactive response for optimal national interests. This important subject therefore deserves an analytical treatment that goes beyond a conventional survey of contemporary international events.
Theoretical Concepts
I crave your indulgence to lay some theoretical foundations before posing some pertinent questions for an interactive conversation: For instance, what does Changing Global Dynamics mean, and what are the characteristics that define the complexities of global dynamics? How should Nigeria, Africa, and institutions such as the NIIA meaningfully and sustainably engage with the complexities of global dynamics?
In answering these questions, I will proceed in three steps: first, clarify what we mean by changing global dynamics; second, identify the defining traits of today’s complexities; and third, propose a practical framework through which the NIIA can respond over the next decade.
According to the Brookings Institution, one of the oldest and most prominent public policy think tanks, changing and complex global dynamics refer to constant, fast-paced, interconnected shifts across international politics, economics, technology, demographic patterns and environmental conditions. Instead of a single predictable trend, changing global dynamics are described as a world where multiple large-scale forces interact, influence, and frequently disrupt one another. The current international landscape is defined by an era of heightened competition, multi-alignment, and technological disruptions. Moving away from the predictable frameworks of the late 20th century, modern global dynamics are best understood through the lens of complexity, where a shift in one system often triggers chaotic and unpredictable reactions in another.
Given the above contextual framework, the complexities of the changing global dynamics are characterized by several distinct and interconnected traits as follows:
- A “Bifurcated” and Fluid Multipolarity
The global order has shifted from the post-Cold War unipolarity (dominated by the US) to an ill-disciplined, bifurcated order with highly permeable boundaries. Issue-by-issue alliances and interests have become the currency for building alliances and coalitions, instead of the fixed ideological blocs seen in the 20th century. Nations, especially in the Global South, practise “multi-alignment”.
A country may partner with the US on cybersecurity, while simultaneously relying on China for infrastructure and trade. The Global Risks Report of 2026 paints a picture of “multipolarity without multilateralism”, with multilateralism facing deepening challenges, while the rules-based international order shows increasing signs of decay, raising the risk of international economic and military conflicts and inaction on global problems.
- Following this pattern is the increasing rise of middle powers: countries such as India, Brazil and the expanded BRICS+ alliance act as structural counterweights, diluting traditional Western institutional authority. Middle powers – nations with ‘adequate strength and influence to operate independently’ – are not waiting for the return of the old system; they are building alliances, creating strategies, and preparing themselves to impact future developments. The Canadian Prime Minister, Mark Carney, put it succinctly in his remarks at the World Economic Forum in Davos in 2026 when he said: “We are in a rupture and not a transition.”Autumn for Globalization, Springtime for Geopolitics
The weaponization of interdependence has become an instrument of geopolitics, as global supply chains, once built purely for cost efficiency, are now battlegrounds for national security. Access to critical minerals, semiconductors, and green energy technologies is heavily guarded, as the use of tariffs and export restrictions has become a mechanism for promoting economic protectionism and nationalism, and trade is increasingly viewed as a zero-sum game. Think tanks and serious organizations must navigate a tangled web of national and supranational regulations to survive.
- Hyper-Complexity of Governance (The Institutional Vacuum)
As global problems burgeon, the institutions designed to fix them are increasingly gridlocked or becoming obsolete. Multilateral institutions are suffering from institutional paralysis at the hands of those who control their budgets. The UN development system, the International Criminal Court (ICC), the World Trade Organisation (WTO), continental and regional organizations, think tanks and traditional climate mechanisms are struggling under great-power and national-power frictions. The multilateral framework is going through its longest legitimacy crisis in years as countries are facing different challenges, from security and critical technologies to supply chains and poor resource governance. Critical shared resources are being exploited; for instance, transboundary water agreements (like those concerning the Indus and Nile River basins) are fraying, transforming environmental pressures into geopolitical leverage.
- Exponential Technological Disruption
Emerging technologies are no longer just tools for productivity; they have become primary drivers of structural and social volatility. The pervasive element of artificial intelligence promises immense institutional and corporate breakthroughs, but it has accelerated at a pace that severely outstrips public policy and regulatory frameworks. The control of AI is becoming more and more of a field of combat for geopolitical rivalry. Similarly, information warfare, especially misinformation and disinformation, alongside geo-economic confrontation, according to the 2026 Global Risks Report, sits at the top of short-term global threats. It’s very concerning that digital battlegrounds have routinely polarized local societies and compromised democratic integrity.
- Polycrisis and Cascading Shocks
The defining characteristic of modern global dynamics is the simultaneous convergence of disparate crises (a polycrisis). Extreme weather shocks trigger economic inflation, which exacerbates unprecedented levels of sovereign debt. This financial strain reduces a state’s capacity to invest in the green transition, thereby driving further climate risk. There is a growing intertwining of climate stress with security and geopolitical questions, with the shrinking Lake Chad basin and the extreme aridity of the Sahel being clear examples. The climate-security nexus therefore demonstrates the peculiar complexities of our situation. Equally noteworthy are the demographic crosscurrents, as the advanced economies face acute demographic contractions and ageing populations, while other regions, especially developing countries, are facing high birth rates and intense migration pressures driven by economic and environmental insecurity.
The above complexities of changing global dynamics demonstrate that no single, traditional framework can fully explain the modern globalizing world. Instead, contemporary global dynamics are characterized by a hybrid reality where competing international relations theories explain different facets of the same global system simultaneously.
Put simply, Realism theory helps us to understand the great-power rivalry, the weaponization of trade and the scramble for critical minerals. Liberal Institutionalism theory helps us to understand why multilateral bodies such as the African Union, ECOWAS and the AfCFTA Secretariat remain indispensable, even when they are under strain. Constructivism theory, for its part, explains the power of narratives, identity and information in shaping how states see one another and how citizens see their governments. For Nigeria, the lesson is clear: our foreign policy thinking cannot rely on a single lens. It must draw on all of them, and this is precisely the kind of integrated, evidence-based analysis that a reinvigorated NIIA is best placed to provide.
For Africa’s most populous nation, these dynamics are not abstract. They shape our national trade and investment choices, security environment in the Sahel and the Gulf of Guinea, digital sovereignty, and the weight of our voice in Africa and in multilateral forums. It is against this background that the NIIA’s role must be reconsidered.
The NIIA’s Mandate and the Challenge of Tackling Emerging Complex Global Dynamics
Below is a comprehensive framework tailored to NIIA’s unique mandate for tackling emerging global complexities while addressing institutional bottlenecks.
- Conceptual Framework and Vision (2026-2036):
The NIIA should revive its founding status as a premier “nursery of ideas” in defending Nigeria’s flexibility and sovereignty amid a shifting global balance of power. The institute should strengthen its goals to move from inconsistent, administration-dependent choices toward producing a non-partisan foreign policy blueprint, while focusing more on producing data-oriented research needed to implement foreign policy objectives.
2. Strategic Pillars:
To achieve its strategic pillars and remain relevant, the NIIA must structure its research around five critical global disruptions:
Multipolarity and Strategic Autonomy – Pressures from major world powers are forcing developing nations into alliances, reviving historical Cold War dynamics. The NIIA should develop tactical policy paths that protect Nigeria’s regional influence and provide deep economic and security analyses on shifting global factions, such as expanded BRICS alignments, Nigeria and the European Union, and improvements in bilateral partnerships with Nigeria’s trading and strategic partners.
3. Emerging Technology & Cybersecurity Issues
Artificial Intelligence (AI), autonomous weaponry, and state-sponsored cyber warfare are fundamentally rewriting international law and state security architecture. The NIIA should consider the need to launch a Centre for Cyber-Diplomacy and Digital Geopolitics. This platform will study how AI affects the future of work, the complex international security environment, and algorithmic bias in global narratives. This Centre should work with Nigerian universities, the technology sector and regulators to build a pool of researchers trained in AI governance, cybersecurity policy and digital trade, to make Nigeria rule-shaped in these fields instead of a rule-taker. Let’s pause and reflect on the recent devastating cyber attacks in Europe that affected 10 European countries simultaneously.
4. Regional Economic Integration
The full rollout of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), the ECOWAS Trade Liberalization Scheme (ETLS) and the long-expected ECOWAS Common Currency (ECO) offers a massive opportunity to break out of raw-material export cycles to scale regional manufacturing and industrialization. The NIIA should play a prominent role in generating evidence-based research and policy guidance that helps Nigeria turn these frameworks into tangible gains in terms of industrial output, job creation and promotion of intra-African trade. The NIIA already possesses some relevant expertise and specialized Centres, including the Bashir Adeniyi International Trade and Investment Centre. In this regard, practical research and training on cross-border logistics and supply-chain challenges, including facilitating the standardization of trade laws to establish Nigeria as the dominant hub for AfCFTA, ETLS and ECO, should be conducted in collaboration with stakeholders managing national, regional and international trade and investments.
5. Climate Security and The Sahel Crisis
The rapid desertification in the Sahel constitutes a threat multiplier, driving mass migration, resource conflicts, and also feeding transnational terrorism such as Boko Haram and ISWAP. The recently established Gen. Leo Irabor National Early Warning Systems Centre is a commendable effort and should, in addition to its mandate, also focus on mapping climate risks and facilitating collaborative early-warning and defence strategies with partners such as ECOWAS and the African Union, with a view to strengthening Nigeria’s national, regional and continental security architecture, awareness of, and responses to, climate challenges.
6. The Variable Geometry of Democracy
As the standard model of Western liberal democracy is being openly challenged globally, with protests and agitations against elected officials over rising costs of living, poor governance and the improvement of the well-being of citizens, the NIIA should be canvassing for localized, culturally resonant governance systems that will deliver democracy dividends to the people. To actualize this objective, the NIIA should collaborate directly with relevant stakeholders such as the Regional Partnership for Democracy (RPD) and other relevant stakeholders to produce scholarly research publications that define democratic frameworks tailored to Africa’s history, social structures, traditions and sustainable development.
7. Institutional Modernization & Capacity Building
To match the standards of elite international think tanks, such as Chatham House, London, the U.S. Council on Foreign Relations (CFR), and the Observer Research Foundation (ORF) in India, the NIIA must rise above long-standing outdated tools, broaden its funding sources, and improve its policy orientation and engagement with stakeholders. It should also seek a more independent endowment fund to be financed via public-private partnerships and paid advisory tracks for multinational corporations, while safeguarding its intellectual independence and non-partisan character.
To strengthen capacity building and deepen policy integration, the NIIA should institutionalize quarterly, closed-door briefings with the Office of the National Security Adviser (ONSA), the National Intelligence Agency (NIA), and the Ministries of Foreign Affairs and Trade and Investment leadership. Through these exchanges, the institute will be able to transform scholarly research into direct and actionable government policy. It should also revive its Annual Patrons Dinner, as an important forum where the President of the Federal Republic of Nigeria announces major foreign policy directions after receiving recommendations from the NIIA.
On modernization of the NIIA, concerted efforts should be made to transition the physical library into a fully digitized, open-access repository E-library for African diplomatic history, utilizing predictive AI modeling for geopolitical forecasting. The NIIA should equip the Institute’s fellows and researchers with 21st-century digital tools to spot global shifts before they happen.
On global partnership and exchanges, the NIIA should consciously promote global exchanges and partnerships by expanding dual-fellowship opportunities with major international research centres (in the USA, UK, China, Brazil, India, Eastern Europe, and across Latin America). Such exchanges will expose the NIIA’s researchers to diverse perspectives and also project Nigerian and African viewpoints into global policy debates. On potential collaboration with other think tanks, the NIIA, as the premier research centre in West Africa, should partner with AMANI Africa and the Institute for Peace and Security Studies (IPSS), both in Addis Ababa, to provide instant analysis of the AU Peace and Security Council and ECOWAS key resolutions and protocols. NIIA should also consider collaboration with ACCORD in (Durban) on conflict prevention, mediation, resolution and joint training of diplomats in negotiation and mediation, among others.
- Public Diplomacy, Sport, Cultural Assets & Stakeholder Engagement
The Nigerian Diaspora is a critical asset that the NIIA should leverage by designing specific research programmes that will treat the diaspora not just as a source of remittances, but as a major soft-power asset to influence foreign policy within partner countries in this emerging disruptive international political order.
In this regard, the NIIA should deepen collaboration with the Nigeria Diaspora Commission (NiDCOM) and tap into the diaspora professional networks to map skills, investment interests and advocacy channels. This collaboration will help Nigeria draw on diaspora expertise in trade promotion, technology transfer and public diplomacy. The NIIA should also utilize more effectively its newly created Sports and Cultural Centre as a strong element of our soft power diplomacy, which can be used to manage, promote and project the positive dimensions of Nigerian Foreign Policy in this age of disruptive global order.
As part of deepening stakeholder engagement, the NIIA should include in its strategic plan, NES-GEN,( Generation NEX) by modernizing the delivery of the NIIA classic Foreign Policy Lecture series through digital media, virtual roundtables, and high-production webinars. The Institute can use this platform to engage young academics and the general public in critical geopolitical conversations.
9. The Hybrid Funding Model: Escaping the Trap of Dependency
The NIIA’s 10-year strategic plan presents an opportunity to broaden the institute’s funding base, as depending on a single funding source puts the Institute at the mercy of the political cycle and executive caprice. The NIIA might also consider the funding models of other prestigious thinktanks, such as the The Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, which prides itself as “the model of a successful public-private partnership”. For the NIIA, this means using public money to attract donors, with the assurance that they are supporting a credible, national institution. There is also the Chatham House funding model, which focuses more on deliberate income diversification, from private foundations to government/international organizations other than UK government departments, corporate memberships, unrestricted donations, publications, training income, endowment returns and investment income.
10. It is also important for the NIIA to consider expanding the scope of its activities beyond Lagos in its ten-year strategic plan. A stronger institutional presence in Abuja would provide the NIIA’s management and scholars with more direct and sustained access to the highest-level foreign policy and economic decision-makers, including regular physical interactions with members of the diplomatic community, especially Ambassadors and High Commissioners. Such proximity would enhance the Institute’s engagement, relevance and strategic influence in national and international policy discourse.
Measuring Success
Finally, a strategic plan is only as good as its implementation. I would therefore suggest that the NIIA approaches its 10-year plan in three phases. The first phase, 2026 to 2028, should lay the foundation: finalizing governance and funding arrangements, launching the Centre for Cyber-Diplomacy and Digital Geopolitics, and starting the digitization of the library. The second phase, 2029 to 2032, should consolidate gains by expanding partnerships, institutionalizing the quarterly briefings with government, and deepening the research programmes. The third phase, 2033 to 2036, should position the NIIA as a recognized Africa-wide leader in foreign policy research and foresight.
Success should be measured by clear indicators: the number of policy briefs adopted or cited by government, the diversity of funding sources, the reach of the digital repository and public programmes, the strength of international partnerships, and the quality of foresight products delivered ahead of major global shifts. Annual reviews against these indicators will keep the Institute accountable and adaptive.
Conclusion
In conclusion, navigating the complexities of an evolving global landscape requires an institution that is independent, digitally agile, adequately resourced, and closely connected to policymakers, scholars and the wider public. With sustained commitment of government, development partners and the NIIA community, the 2026-2036 Strategic Plan offers a historic opportunity to restore the Institute’s position as Nigeria’s leading voice on foreign policy and a trusted source of vision and guidance for Africa.
Esteemed Chairman, and Distinguished Professors and participants, in today’s disruptive world, the time for reflection and action is now. I therefore urge this Roundtable to support the NIIA in turning our deliberations into clear priorities, measurable outcomes with timelines and robust accountability mechanisms. The true test of this strategic Plan will not be the scope of its vision, but the discipline of its implementation. Let us seize this moment to position the NIIA as a stronger, more influential, and globally respected institution capable of shaping Nigeria’s engagements with a rapidly changing world.
I thank you all for your kind attention. God bless.
Amb. Babatunde Ajisomo is a distinguished diplomat with a career spanning several decades, including as Nigeria’s Ambassador to Vietnam and the ECOWAS Special Representative to Liberia. He delivered this paper at the NIIA two–day Roundtable Retreat in Lagos on 9–10 November 2026.
