PeacePro has urged the Federal Government to reconcile conflicting household, population and cash-transfer figures in Nigeria’s social protection system to improve transparency and financial accountability.
The Foundation for Peace Professionals (PeacePro) said Nigeria needs clearer and more consistent household and social-protection data.
Executive Director Abdulrazaq Hamzat said the group was not alleging wrongdoing but wanted government to explain how figures from different public institutions connect.
“We are not questioning the importance of social protection or the efforts of government to support vulnerable Nigerians,” Hamzat said.
“We are asking a simple public-interest question: what exactly is being counted, under what definition, and how do the different numbers relate to one another?”
According to Federal Government statements in September 2025, about 19.7 million poor and vulnerable households had entered the National Social Register. The figure represented more than 70 million individuals.
A World Bank publication describes Nigeria’s wider Social Registry as covering more than 19 million households and about 86 million individuals. It combines the National Social Registry and Rapid Response Registry, while the World Bank describes the National Social Registry as an aggregation of State Social Registries.
PeacePro said the differences could reflect different dates, registry components or definitions. However, it wants government to state the methodology and reporting dates clearly.
Hamzat said 19.7 million households and 70 million individuals imply an average of about 3.55 people per household. That differs from the 5.06-person national household average reported by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) in its Nigeria Living Standards Survey 2020.
The NBS reported averages of 5.42 people in rural areas and 4.50 in urban areas.
“If the 5.06 national average were mechanically applied to 19.7 million households, it would produce a population of approximately 99.7 million people,” Hamzat said.
“However, we are not suggesting that this calculation proves that either figure is incorrect. The Social Register is a targeted administrative database, not a population census. Household composition among registered poor and vulnerable households may differ from the national average.
“Our legitimate question is therefore, what household definition and household size methodology produced the reported relationship between 19.7 million households and more than 70 million individuals?”
PeacePro said another official dataset makes reconciliation more important
The NBS National Agricultural Sample Census (NASC) 2022 reported an estimated 40.2 million agricultural households in Nigeria.
The NBS describes NASC as an agricultural census covering crop production, livestock, fisheries and forestry.
PeacePro stressed that an agricultural household does not automatically mean a household whose only activity is farming. It also said the figure should not be added to non-agricultural households because the categories may overlap.
Hamzat said the figure raises an important national statistical question.
“According to the 2006 Population and Housing Census data published by the National Bureau of Statistics, Nigeria had 28,900,492 households at the time, including regular, institutional, homeless, nomadic, transient and fishing/hunting household categories. Regular households alone numbered 28,197,085.
“Sixteen years later, the NBS agricultural census reported approximately 40.2 million agricultural households alone.
“Obviously, these exercises have different purposes, methodologies and reference periods. We are not saying the two figures should be identical.
“But Nigerians deserve to understand the statistical relationship between them.
“How did the national household universe evolve from the 2006 census to the 2022 agricultural census? What is the current estimated total number of households in Nigeria? How many of those households are agricultural, and how many are not classified as agricultural?
“These are reasonable questions for a national statistical system.”
PeacePro said the need for clarity becomes stronger when social intervention figures are compared.The Federal Government has reported a target of 15 million households. Each household should receive ₦75,000 over three months through three monthly payments of ₦25,000. The World Bank documented the 15-million-household programme and its ₦75,000 three-month structure.
In September 2025, government reporting said about 8.1 million households had received at least one ₦25,000 tranche. Another account of the same briefing reported 8.5 million households.
Government also said some households had received two or three payments.
PeacePro said the difference should be clarified rather than treated as an error.
“Was the difference caused by the timing of reporting, an additional payment cycle, a distinction between successful and processed payments, or another administrative definition?” Hamzat asked.
“We are not alleging an error. We are asking for the reconciliation.”
Government has also reported about ₦330 billion in cash-transfer disbursements.
PeacePro said the figure should match the number and distribution of payments.
At ₦25,000 per tranche:
8.1 million households × ₦25,000 = ₦202.5 billion.
If 8.1 million households had each received three tranches:
8.1 million households × ₦75,000 = ₦607.5 billion.
“These calculations do not establish an inconsistency because government has clearly indicated that households received different numbers of tranches,” Hamzat said.
“That is exactly why we need the underlying distribution. How many households received one payment? How many received two? How many received three? And how does that distribution reconcile precisely to the reported ₦330 billion?”
PeacePro said the information would turn the public concern into a straightforward accounting exercise.
PeacePro also wants government to explain the source and use of programme funding.
The World Bank approved an $800 million International Development Association (IDA) credit for the National Social Safety Net Program Scale-Up (NASSP-SU) in December 2021.
The facility aimed to expand shock-responsive safety-net support and strengthen Nigeria’s national safety-net delivery system.
World Bank project documents show that the $800 million allocation included about $747 million for cash transfers. Other components covered areas such as registry expansion, NASSCO operations and NCTO operations.
PeacePro therefore stressed that the $800 million should not simply be described as money handed to beneficiaries.
“The World Bank documentation itself shows that the facility has several components,” Hamzat said.
“What Nigerians need is a transparent reconciliation showing the amount committed, amount disbursed, amount used for cash transfers, amount used for delivery systems and other components, and the amount remaining under the facility.”
PeacePro said every major social intervention should follow a clear data trail.
Hamzat said this would help separate households, individuals, beneficiaries and transactions.
“Three payments to one household do not constitute three households,” he said.
“Likewise, one person appearing in two programmes does not automatically represent two individuals. Several members of the same household receiving different interventions do not automatically constitute several households.”
PeacePro called on the National Bureau of Statistics, National Population Commission, National Social Safety Nets Coordinating Office, National Cash Transfer Office and National Identity Management Commission to develop a harmonised household data framework.
The group wants government to publish a consolidated statement showing, for a clearly stated reference date, Nigeria’s total estimated households; the definition of “household” used by each major statistical and social protection system; the number of agricultural households; and the number of households and individuals in the National Social Register.
Furthermore, it wants government to publish the methodology used to derive individual figures, the number of poor or vulnerable households, those eligible for each intervention, those approved, unique households paid, unique individuals reached and payment transactions.
It also wants details on households receiving one, two or three tranches; amounts allocated and disbursed; funding sources; and records added, removed, merged, duplicated or updated during each reporting period.
PeacePro also called for an independent technical review of the data architecture.
Hamzat said the review should strengthen the integrity of the database rather than investigate alleged wrongdoing.
The review should examine duplicate and outdated records, changes in household composition, relocation, identity matching and payment reconciliation. It should also respect privacy and data-protection rules.
External sources
National Bureau of Statistics — Nigeria Living Standards Survey 2020
National Bureau of Statistics — National Agricultural Sample Census 2022
World Bank — Nigeria National Social Safety Net Scale-Up
Abdulrazaq O Hamzat
Executive Director
Foundation for Peace Professionals (FPP)
