Russia’s ability to translate its growing diplomatic engagement with Africa into sustainable economic and security partnerships remains uncertain, Martin Minns, Co-Executive Producer of Pan-Africa podcast Panel 54, has said.
Minns said this in an article titled “Can Russia Reach the Summit of Its Ambitions in Africa?”, examining the outcomes of the third Russia-Africa Summit held in Moscow on Oct. 28 and 29.
He said that although 22 African heads of state attended the summit, compared with 17 at the second edition in St Petersburg in 2023, the figure was lower than the 43 leaders who attended the inaugural summit in Sochi in 2019.
According to him, the Kremlin attributed the reduced attendance to what it described as excessive Western pressure.
Minns, however, said the more important issues were the benefits African countries derived from the diplomatic engagements and whether the summit produced sustainable partnerships.
He noted that Russia’s engagement with Africa had increased in recent years, but its economic contributions remained limited, while the outcomes of its security interventions were mixed.
He said Russia’s interests in Africa included countering Western influence, building partnerships with non-aligned countries, securing access to minerals and expanding defence sales.
According to him, Russia’s investment accounts for less than one per cent of foreign direct investment into Africa, making its economic contribution relatively small compared with those of the United States, Europe and China.
Minns also noted that Russia’s global arms exports declined by 64 per cent between 2021 and 2025, although the country remained the third-largest supplier of major arms to Africa during the period, behind the United States and China.
He expressed concern that Russia’s growing security involvement in the Sahel had not translated into reliable security guarantees.
He said annual deaths linked to violent extremism in the Sahel rose from an average of 927 between 2016 and 2019 to 10,470 between 2022 and 2025.
Minns attributed Russia’s difficulty in sustaining its African security commitments partly to the pressure on its resources arising from the ongoing war in Ukraine.
He also described Russia’s recruitment of Africans to fight in the conflict as damaging to its image across the continent.
Citing an Afrobarometer survey conducted across 38 African countries in 2024 and 2025, he said perceptions of Russian influence were less positive than those of the United States, the European Union and China.
He added that 72 per cent of respondents who had heard about the Ukraine war wanted their countries to remain neutral in the conflict.
The article also referenced an October 2026 report by Hague-based Journalists for Justice, titled “The Death Contract: How Russia Recruits Africans to Fight and Die in Ukraine.”
The report documented 3,034 African citizens from 40 countries allegedly recruited into the Russian armed forces, often through deception and promises of civilian employment.
Minns welcomed an agreement between Russian President Vladimir Putin and Kenyan President William Ruto to designate Kenya as a non-source country for recruitment into the Russian military.
He, however, stressed the need for effective implementation to prevent recruiters from exploiting alternative channels.
He also cited a Bloomberg report indicating that Moscow was expanding its recruitment activities in other African countries, including Zimbabwe, Burundi and Sierra Leone.
According to Minns, African countries’ engagement with Russia reflects a policy of diversified non-alignment, through which governments engage different international partners to advance their trade, security and diplomatic interests.
He said Russia’s capacity to deliver on its African commitments remained constrained by the Ukraine war, which continued to consume its material and political resources.
Minns said Russia’s future standing as a partner would depend on its ability to provide sustained economic benefits, dependable security cooperation and tangible outcomes for African countries.
He added that the Moscow summit demonstrated the scale of Russia’s ambitions in Africa, but the implementation of its commitments would determine how much it could achieve.
“Talk is cheap,” he said.
