By Alex Ter Adum, PhD
Bola Ahmed Tinubu, the acclaimed “chief strategist”, did not merely enter the 2027 contest, he sought to define it from the outset. His early framing of the election as a North–South contest was not accidental; it was a calculated move. The objective was straightforward: secure a weak southern opponent and replicate the controversial Muslim–Muslim ticket advantage of 2023 to overwhelm any challenger, particularly one constrained by the delicate religious arithmetic of the North.
But that calculation is now under strain.
With Atiku Abubakar formally entering the race from the North, the equation has shifted fundamentally. The North appears increasingly inclined to move beyond the religious framing of 2023 and refocus the contest on capacity, competence, credibility, and even the question of marginalisation, a terrain on which Atiku is both familiar and formidable.
This shift potentially hands him an early advantage in the North and positions him to take the battle directly into Tinubu’s perceived southern stronghold. It is therefore no coincidence that unease is growing within the APC and the Tinubu presidency.
What has followed is predictable: rising pressure, subtle coercion, and, in some instances, brazen political blackmail, all aimed at discouraging Atiku from contesting. The objective is unmistakable: remove the most structurally viable threat while promoting alternative opposition configurations, particularly a potential Obi–Kwankwaso alignment, widely perceived as easier to defeat or outmaneuver.
Let us be clear: in this configuration, Atiku remains the most consequential threat to Tinubu’s second-term ambition, just as Muhammadu Buhari, and not Tinubu or any southern candidate, was to Goodluck Jonathan in 2015. Not Peter Obi, not Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso.
A combination of Atiku/Obi, supported by Kwankwaso, Chibuike Rotimi Amaechi, and Nasir El-Rufai, would deliver the most devastating electoral impact. By contrast, an Obi/Kwankwaso ticket—even with support from Atiku and Amaechi—would only create the semblance of a contest, lacking the deep resonance required with the core northern electorate, as Kwankwaso himself has previously suggested.
WHAT THE APC STRATEGY SEEKS TO ACHIEVE
- Force Atiku Out of the Race
The central aim is to engineer a contest dominated by southern presidential candidates paired with northern running mates, thereby fragmenting and neutralising northern electoral consolidation. This mirrors, in reverse, the 2015 strategy, when APC fielded Buhari from the North against an incumbent southern president. - Neutralise a Strong Northern Alternative
A credible and widely accepted northern candidate on an opposition platform, particularly within the ADC, would dramatically undercut APC’s national prospects and potentially recreate the political watershed of 2015. - Weaponise Zoning as Strategy, Not Principle
The agitation for a “southern turn” is often presented as a moral imperative. In reality, it is neither altruistic nor strategically expansive; it is a narrowly tailored political instrument designed to smooth the path for Tinubu’s re-election.
Here lies the critical calculation:
If the opposition fields another southern candidate, the North has little rational incentive to support such a ticket. A new southern presidency in 2027 would naturally seek, and justify, a second term, potentially extending southern hold on power until 2035 and extending the marginalisation of the North.
By contrast, supporting Tinubu in 2027 offers a far more predictable outcome: a return of presidential power to the North in 2031.
That is the joker in the deck.
The “southern turn” argument, therefore, functions less as a principle of fairness and more as a strategic lever, one that aligns northern political incentives with Tinubu’s re-election as against a Peter Obi or any other Southerner.
- Capitalise on a Fragmented Opposition
Hypothetically, should Peter Obi emerge as the ADC candidate, the expectation within APC circles is clear: Tinubu consolidates northern stakeholders, leveraging both religious sentiment and the assurance of power rotation in 2031, to retain power. The prevailing logic is that a southern challenger is structurally disadvantaged against a southern incumbent under current political realities. - Disrupt Opposition Cohesion
There are growing indications of deliberate efforts to infiltrate and amplify divisions within opposition ranks, particularly within Obi’s political base. By magnifying both legitimate grievances and manufactured narratives, the strategy is to provoke internal discord and weaken collective focus, especially within the Obidient bloc of the ADC. A WORD TO ADC SUPPORTERS
To members and supporters of the ADC: this moment demands clarity, not sentiment.
The party’s leadership must reflect deeply on the counsel of HE. Chibuike Rotimi Amaechi at the just-concluded National Convention and undertake a cold, disciplined assessment of the permutations before it. Opposition politics is not an exercise in emotional indulgence, it is a contest of strategy, structure, and winning formula.
The hard truth is this: opinions, particularly those shaped, seeded, or amplified by opposing interests and media hirelings may sound persuasive but often lack strategic substance.
2027 is too consequential to be misread.
Too strategic to be squandered on sentiment.
Misjudge the moment, and what appears to be a contest may, in reality, become a coronation.
Alex Ter Adum, PhD
DDG, THE NARRATIVE FORCE
alexadum45@gmail.com
