By Rita Ebiuwa
In recent days, a recurring statement has echoed across political conversations, especially within opposition circles: “If Atiku gets the ticket, we will vote Tinubu.”
It is a declaration often made with an air of defiance, as though it is a strategic threat or a favour being extended to those with differing political preferences. But in reality, it reflects something far more concerning an increasing tendency to substitute emotional reactions for political reasoning.
The truth is simple: no one is doing anyone a favour in this struggle. Nigerians, regardless of political alignment, share the same economic realities. We buy from the same markets, queue at the same filling stations, and ultimately bear the consequences of government policies together.
The tax burdens and economic reforms being introduced under Bola Ahmed Tinubu will not discriminate between supporters and opponents.
This is why the conversation must shift from personal loyalties to national survival.
At the heart of the matter is not who prefers whom, but what direction the country takes. The policies of the current administration have intensified economic pressure on ordinary Nigerians, making governance a lived experience of hardship for many. In such a moment, the opposition cannot afford fragmentation driven by ego or sentiment.
The idea that political choices should be guided by emotional attachment to personalities rather than calculated strategy is not just flawed, it is dangerous. Elections, particularly against incumbents, are not won on feelings; they are won on structure, numbers, and coalition-building.
Within the ADC, there is no shortage of capable aspirants. All possess the experience and competence required to steer Nigeria in a better direction than what is currently being experienced. However, competence alone does not win elections in Nigeria’s complex political terrain.
Victory requires a combination of credibility, reach, and strategic alliance.
A ticket that combines figures like Atiku Abubakar and Peter Obi represents more than personalities, it represents a potential bridge across political divides. Such a coalition has the capacity to galvanize support across regions and dismantle the incumbent advantage of Bola Ahmed Tinubu without relying on sentiment.
Any serious political analysis must confront the historical pattern of power rotation in Nigeria’s democracy.
Since 1999, the South has held presidential power for a longer period:
8 years of Olusegun Obasanjo
5 years of Goodluck Jonathan
4 years (ongoing) of Bola Ahmed Tinubu
This totals 17 years.
In contrast, the North has held power for:
8 years of Muhammadu Buhari
3 years of Umaru Musa Yar’Adua
A total of 11 years.
This imbalance is not just a statistic, it is a political reality that influences voter behaviour and elite negotiations. Expecting the North to support another fresh southern candidate, potentially extending southern rule by another eight years, ignores this reality. Politics is not played in a vacuum. It is shaped by perception, equity, and strategic interest.
Another undeniable truth in Nigerian politics is the electoral weight of the North. No presidential candidate can realistically secure victory without significant support from that region.
Within the ADC coalition, the Northern bloc has demonstrated coordination, seriousness, and a clear sense of purpose. Their ongoing alignments and negotiations are not the actions of a group preparing to settle for secondary positions. They reflect a bloc positioning itself for leadership.
To assume otherwise is to misunderstand political behaviour.
If the region already feels shortchanged in terms of years in power, it becomes even less likely to rally behind a southern candidate. In such a scenario, the risk is not just losing Northern support, it is indirectly strengthening the incumbent by default.
History and political experience offer a consistent lesson: defeating an incumbent requires more than popularity, it requires strategic positioning.
One of the most effective strategies is to shift political advantage away from the incumbent’s base while consolidating strength in regions with the highest voter concentration. In Nigeria, this often means building strong alliances within the North, especially when the incumbent is not from that region.
Zoning the ticket in a way that aligns with this reality is not an act of concession; it is an act of political intelligence.
The current debate within opposition circles reveals a deeper challenge, the struggle between emotional loyalty and strategic thinking.
While passion has its place in politics, it cannot replace calculation. The stakes are too high for decisions to be driven by personal preferences or factional sentiments.
The reality remains clear:
The North currently represents the most structured and decisive opposition force within the broader coalition. Recognizing this is not about bias it is about understanding the terrain.
If this reality is ignored, the consequence may be predictable: a divided opposition and a strengthened incumbent.
And in that outcome, no one wins not even those who believe they are making a point by choosing sides.
Because in the end, Nigerians will still return to the same markets, face the same economic pressures, and live under the same policies.
This is why the moment calls not for emotion, but for strategy.
