ARISE Director of News and Politics Editor, Sumner Sambo, says Nigeria’s political landscape is entering a highly sensitive and volatile phase shaped by strict Electoral Act timelines, internal party disputes, zoning battles, and ongoing court cases ahead of party primaries and the 2027 general elections.
In an interview with ARISE NEWS on Monday, Sambo described the political environment as “dicey,” warning that parties are under mounting pressure to comply with legal requirements while simultaneously managing deepening internal divisions.
He explained that the expiration of deadlines for submission of party membership registers to the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) has effectively closed the window for defections, forcing political parties into urgent organisational realignments.
“It’s a very dicey situation for the polity as we enter into the last lap of what it means to actually get a ticket of a political party.”
Sambo noted that political parties were required to submit both digital and manual membership registers to INEC, a process that determines eligibility for congresses, conventions, and primaries.
“Because May 10th, for example, was the last day, but technically it should have been actually May 9th, when we hit the first milestone, which is every political party will now have to submit their register, digital copy of the register and then a manual copy to INEC stating the membership that they have.
“And then, of course, it’s within that membership that they will derive the powers to be able to hold congresses, conventions and then, of course, primaries.”
He compared the situation to a “political transfer window,” stressing that defections are now effectively impossible under the Electoral ACT timeline.
“You would have seen that lots of political parties are rushing, holding conventions. And then, of course, eventually that would relate to primaries after having previously held congresses.”
“Now, that register will contain the names of each and every party member. So if we were to state it the way it is done in football, I mean, the political transfer window ended on May 10th, which was yesterday.”
“What this means is that anyone who wants to defect to any political party right now has lost the right to defect officially. You can’t defect as a member, neither can you defect to go and contest. Because for you to contest, you would have to first of all be a member of the party.”
He said the restriction strengthens Nigeria’s democratic process by preventing opportunistic party switching after losing primaries.
“This provision is one of the beautiful provisions of the Electoral Act, so that we don’t have people losing party primaries and from there wanting to jump into another political party. And so this provision will actually help to strengthen our democratic system.”
Sambo also highlighted INEC’s enforcement of a minimum membership threshold for political parties.
“No party should have less than 5,000 members. So if you are a newly registered political party and you don’t have up to 5,000 members, I think you will be getting into trouble with INEC.”
He added that the enforcement of these rules has triggered accusations of political manoeuvring, particularly claims that the ruling party is using its parliamentary strength to limit defections.
“Some people have been saying within the polity that the APC seems to have added this provision, using its strength in the National Assembly, to counter other political parties, to ensure that those who are going to be wailing and having gnashing of teeth, because they lost out in the APC, will not move to any other party.”
Turning to internal party dynamics, Sambo warned of growing tension within the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC), particularly around consensus-building processes.
“In the APC on issues of consensus and no consensus, the issues of consensus actually continues to be a major discourse in the governing party.”
He urged INEC to remain neutral in managing the electoral process.
“We just hope that INEC will teleguide the process in such a way that no political party seems to be favoured.”
Sambo praised recent zoning moves within one opposition bloc, noting that a clearer position on presidential zoning strengthens internal stability.
“What they did is very, very fantastic, and I really like the fact that they seem to be setting a clear agenda as to where it’s going to go.”
He contrasted this with another opposition party, which he said has struggled with unclear zoning arrangements.
“It was the failure of ADC to be able to outrightly declare where it’s zoning its presidency to that made the likes of Peter Obi to run out of that party.”
“What we have in the ADC is like what we had in 2023, including 2019, where there was no clear definition of zoning. And then it was thrown open. And because it was thrown open, anybody could contest.”
He said lack of clarity contributed to fragmentation and political defections.
“A lot of people who were in the ADC ran away from the ADC because they were trying to prevent that.”
He added that clear zoning decisions can help political stability and strategic planning.
“If ADC had made it clear where they were zoning their presidential ticket to, maybe that could have helped Obi to stay focused or use that as an excuse to leave.”
However, he warned that regional imbalance in party structures could become a political risk.
“The ADC must be careful not to make itself look like it’s a southern party where it doesn’t have strong structures in the north.”
Sambo also addressed ongoing litigation over party leadership in the ADC, warning that uncertainty could affect candidates and elected officials.
“The court says the matter about the leadership of the party has been postponed indefinitely. Where does that leave that party in terms of the conversation?”
“The ADC can still field aspirants at the moment because INEC, in obedience with the court judgement, would allow them to field. But whatever will happen at the end of the court case is what no one knows.”
He raised concerns about potential consequences if courts invalidate party leadership decisions.
“What will now happen to those who won elections on the platform of the party and whose forms were signed by David Mark and Rauf Aregbesola? Would those who have emerged now have their certificates of return withdrawn?”
He criticised attempts to escalate judicial disputes further.
“There is absolutely no time for that, but these are the things we continue to see in the polity.”
Sambo further warned that emerging alignments ahead of 2027 could heighten ethnic tensions and complicate electoral outcomes.
“We are going to have a situation whereby we have an Igbo person as a major presidential contender, a Hausa-Fulani person like Atiku, an Ijaw former president, and then President Tinubu from the southwest.”
“If this happens, the 2027 election may be ethnicised. And what does that mean? It means INEC should also start planning for a rerun election.”
He cautioned that such fragmentation could produce an inconclusive election.
“There is a likelihood that we may not have a clear winner emerging, and if this happens, it is going to be a major challenge.”
He also called for security preparedness to prevent post-election unrest.
“National security must help manage this situation so that whatever comes out does not lead to fights between ethnic groups.”
Sambo concluded by urging political parties to strictly comply with electoral laws and avoid legal breaches that could trigger litigation and instability.
“Nigerians should take a careful look at the Electoral Act, read it very well, because most political parties will be trying to run foul of that. Any party that runs foul of the Electoral Act provision, any member of that party has the right to actually take the party to court.”
He warned that the coming weeks would be politically intense.
“Interesting times lie ahead, and especially in the governing APC, there will be a lot of whipping and gnashing of teeth in the next two weeks.”
“Interesting times lie ahead” (Arisetv)
